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东海期货:12月货币延续宽松 企业中长期贷款持续走高

2024-07-13 19:57:51 浏览:63

事件要点:

12月社会融资规模增量为1.31万亿元,预期为1.6万亿元,前值为1.99万亿元;12月末,社会融资规模存量为344.21万亿元,同比增长9.6%。12月末,广义货币(M2)同比增长11.8%,预期12.2%,前值12.4%;人民币贷款增加1.4万亿元,预期1.1万亿元,前值1.21万亿元。

摘要:

Ø 12月社会融资规模增量为1.31万亿元,预期为1.6万亿元;人民币贷款增加1.4万亿元,预期1.1万亿元;M2同比增长11.8%,预期12.2%。中国12月金融数据M2继续维持高位,表明货币供应充裕;社融不及预期但新增人民币贷款略超预期,表明虽然当前社会资金需求仍旧偏弱、但信贷需求继续回暖。由于当前国内经济短期受疫情影响,仍有一定的稳经济压力,央行货币政策持续维持宽松水平;因此,宽货币的基调短期大概率不会出现扭转,一季度有进一步放松的可能。宽信用方面,疫情防控措施持续优化和放松、地产支持政策持续加码以及促销费政策出台;短期居民消费快速恢复,且中长期随着疫情对经济的影响减弱,居民消费信心及对房地产市场信心有望逐步回暖,企业对未来信心也将加快恢复,信贷需求有望持续回暖;因此,中长期宽货币有望加快向宽信用传导。对市场而言,金融数据好坏参半,短期对国内市场影响不大。中长期随着国内疫情防控放松,国内经济复苏预期快速增强,宽货币政策仍将延续,信用端将逐步发力,宽货币有望加快向信用端传导,中长期将利多国内股市和内需型大宗商品。

Ø 12月M2同比增长11.8%,增速分别比上月末和上年同期下降0.6和上升2.8个百分点。M1-M2 剪刀差由11月的-7.8个百分点下降至-8.1个百分点,M2、M2-M1 剪刀差继续维持高位,意味着资金供给持续宽松,货币政策延续宽松格局。由于目前国内经济仍旧偏弱,财政货币政策维持宽松水平,M2预计将继续维持高位。

Ø 12月新增人民币贷款1.4万亿元,预期1.1万亿元,前值1.21万亿元,较去年同期多增2700亿元,12月新增人民币贷款投放继续回暖且略超预期。主要是由于企业部门中长期贷款同比大幅上升所致。从结构来看,12月居民贷款新增1753亿元,同比少增1963亿元;其中,新增居民短期贷款-113亿元,同比少增270亿元,新增居民中长期贷款1865亿元,同比少增1693亿元。居民贷款增量较去年有所减少,且环比有所下降;在短期贷款方面,由于12月疫情影响,居民消费活动继续放缓;中长期贷款方面,由于虽然房地产刺激政策陆续加码出台,但是由于疫情影响居民购房需求、导致中长期贷款依旧较弱。12月企业贷款新增12637亿元,同比多增6017亿元;其中短期贷款、中长期贷款分别为-416亿和12110亿元,同比分别多增638亿元和多增8717亿元;新增票据融资1146亿元,同比少增2941亿元。由于12月国内疫情防控措施放松,市场对于国内经济复苏预期大幅增强,企业信心大幅增强,企业中长期贷款大幅增强;在国内疫情对经济影响逐步减弱的情况下,国内实体经济融资需求将持续保持较高水平。

Ø 12月份新增社会融资规模1.31万亿元,预期为1.6万亿元,前值为1.99万亿元,同比少增1.05万亿元,新增社融超预期回落。12月社融存量增速9.6%,较11月份回落0.4个百分点,宽货币有向宽信用传导仍旧乏力。从新增社融的结构来看,实体经济融资需求仍旧较弱,企业债券融资略有下滑、政府债发行回暖、非标融资需求继续回升。12月新增信贷1.44万亿元,同比去年多增4004亿元,12月份信贷需求环比回升且远高于去年。12月信托贷款、委托贷款与银行未贴现承兑汇票等“非标”资产合计减少1418亿元,同比多增4970亿元,非标融资拖累大幅下降。12月企业债券融资减少2709亿元,同比少增4876亿元,企业债券融资需求继续大幅回落。政府债券由于追加发行额度发行完毕,当月政府债券净融资2781亿元,同比少增8893亿元;政府部门融资需求较去年大幅回落,且环比继续下降。整体来看,企业部门信贷融资需求大幅上升,政府部门融资大幅下降,居民部门信贷和融资需求仍旧较弱。未来随着疫情对经济的影响减弱以及稳经济政策加快落地落实和落地,政府融资由于今年财政将继续维持扩张料将维持一定需求,企业部门中长期随着企业信心回暖,后续融资需求有望持续增加;而居民部门融资需求随着房地产刺激政策加码出台以及疫情影响减弱,居民购房意愿略有回升,后续居民部门融资需求或继续回暖。因此,虽然社会融资需求短期仍有一定压力,但中长期宽货币有望加快向宽信用传导。

风险提示

本报告中的信息均源自于公开资料,我司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,在任何情况下本报告亦不构成对所述期货品种的买卖建议。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。

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