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小摩预计美国12月通胀数据将低于预期 帮助美股延续熊市反弹

2024-07-13 20:15:52 浏览:42

的销售和交易部门表示,将于周四发布的美国通胀数据可能会低于预期,从而帮助美股延续熊市反弹。

虽然市场普遍预计去年12月的消费者价格指数(CPI)将下滑至6.5%,包括Andrew Tyler在内的摩根大通团队认为,12月CPI数据有三分之二的可能性与预估值相差10个基点以内,且会比预估值低。他们认为,由于投资者基本上处于防御状态,任何表明美联储的抗通胀行动正在奏效的证据都将引发人们急于解除看跌头寸。在这种情况下,他们认为,标普500指数会在交易时段上涨1.5%-2%。

Tyler在周二给客户的一份报告中写道:“这应该有助于新生的熊市反弹,我们的情景分析偏向于看涨。但只要美联储仍然积极推进紧缩周期,我们仍然保持谨慎态度。”

如果通胀率低于6.4%(Tyler团队认为出现这种情况的概率为20%),标普500指数将跳升3%-3.5%。对于债券市场来说,除非数据远低于预期,降至6%或更低,否则其走势预计会很平缓。Tyler团队的分析显示,只有在CPI低于4.5%-5%的情况下,才有可能会对美联储将在3月会议上暂停紧缩周期的预期进行重新定价。

另一方面,如果CPI读数高于6.6%,预计将打击风险资产,债券收益率将沿曲线上升。而高于6.8%的读数可能会震惊投资者,这是一个极小概率事件。

在过去的一年里,随着美联储开始实施几十年来最激进的紧缩政策以压制通胀,CPI数据发布日已经成为市场波动的一个来源。数据显示,在2022年,标普500指数在CPI发布首日平均波动了1.9%,几乎是之前五年波动幅度的三倍。

对通胀和金融市场加以预测在新冠疫情后几乎是一项徒劳的工作。不过,摩根大通的分析仍为了解CPI数据公布前的市场情绪提供了一个视角。Tyler及其同事提醒说,任何的股票反弹可能都不会持续,尽管交易员可以利用动荡的市场来赚快钱。他们写道:“短期投资者可以考虑利用科技行业的各个领域,特别是被大量做空的无利可图的领域,来从短期反弹中获利。”

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