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多重风险之下 美股大盘股成全球避风港

2024-07-13 19:14:09 浏览:21

随着俄乌冲突、利率上升和全球经济衰退等风险的上升,美股大盘股成为全球避风港。

智通财经了解到,过去两周,标普500指数上涨超过 8%,收复了自2月24日俄乌局势升级以来的所有跌幅。与此同时,以科技股为主的100指数同期上涨了近11%。 由于企业收益强劲及前景改善,有理由认为,尽管全球股市面临诸多风险,但美股仍能保持上涨。

俄乌冲突引发了大宗商品价格的飙升,加剧了本已处于40年高点的通胀。 与此同时,对俄罗斯的制裁可能会拖累全球经济增长。 美国的衰退风险也在累积,随着美联储开始新一轮紧缩周期,部分美国国债收益率曲线出现倒挂。

也许最令人费解的是,美股并没有崩盘。相比之下,自从俄乌局势升级以来,欧洲斯托克600指数基本持平。在此期间,资本国际亚太指数下跌了3%多一点。

目前,美国股票似乎是全球投资者的最佳选择,尤其是与债券相比。根据的数据,按全球GDP加权计算的全球政府债务回报率正处于自 1949 年以来最糟糕的一年。

WallachBeth Capital董事总经理兼高级策略师Ilya Feygin表示,“我们应该转投对形势更有利的行业,因为除了股票,真的没有太多选择。”

企业收益强劲

在美国,大盘股比中小盘股更安全、更有价值,因为它们往往能为投资者带来可靠的收入,尤其是那些能够维持派息的公司。此外,Laffer Tengler Investments 首席执行官兼首席投资官 Nancy Tengler表示,美国股市年初的低迷可能在很大程度上反映了油价飙升和经济增长放缓的影响,这意味着它们不再那么昂贵。

“美股大盘股是避风港,因为它们能实现稳定增长,而且没有大量债务,”Tengler表示。“这是一个能以折扣价买入高质量的公司的机会。”

另一个支撑美股的因素是市场对第一季度美国企业每股收益的预期连续三周改善。

Bloomberg Intelligence首席股票策略师Gina Martin Adams在一份报告中写道:“股市似乎已在很大程度上计入了近期地缘政治和利率风险。”“随着供应链改善和营收预期不断提高,分析师对企业的盈利预期再次攀升。”

科技股表现出韧性

由于疫情期间资产负债表上积累了巨额现金,投资者也对美国企业感到放心。因此,美国公司纷纷加大股票回购力度,达到创纪录水平。根据标普指数公司的数据,标普500指数成分股去年回购了8,820亿美元的股票,比2018年创下的纪录高出9.3%。

此外,(AAPL.US)、(GOOG.US)和(MSFT.US) 等科技巨头的股价仍处于低迷状态,这为购买不久前还处于历史高点的股票提供了机会。

Steward Partners Global Advisory财富管理执行董事总经理Eric Beiley表示:“大型科技公司表现出了韧性,尤其是FAANG公司。”“投资者将其中一些股票下跌至少20%视为买入机会。投资者也密切关注网络股,而芯片股也很有吸引力,因为它们是数字世界的支柱。”

尽管如此,投资美股仍存在风险,因为历史上的经济衰退指标一直在向投资者发出警告信号。2年期和10年期美国国债收益率之差已收窄,而10年期和3个月期美国国债收益率之差实际上正在扩大。这两项指标过去都曾预测过经济衰退。

从技术面来看,标普500指数正处于关键拐点,目前该指数已回到200日移动均线上方。如果该指数能够维持在这个水平之上,并突破2月的高点4590点左右(目前约4543点),这可能意味着市场正处于上升轨道。然而,如果突破失败,则可能意味着市场将走低。

“历史表明,股市最初因对地缘冲突的担忧而大幅下降。一旦冲突爆发,市场通常就会恢复,”Beiley表示。“什么能改变我的想法?更糟糕的事情发生了。我们不知道俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的事情会如何结束。这是一个大问题。”

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