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光大期货金融类日报

2024-07-13 22:09:19 浏览:51

股指:

昨日指数多数收涨,创业板指数涨幅相对较大 ,国证2000小幅收跌,汽车与消费者服务行业涨幅相对较大,银行与非银金融行业跌幅相对较大,整体成交量较前一日再度小幅回落,北上资金昨日延续净流入。隔夜美股收高,中概股整体收涨。近期资金与市场情绪表现均相对平稳,春节前A股交易时间不足两周,我们认为指数在节前有望维持震荡偏强。

国债:

国债期货全线收跌,10年期主力合约跌0.23%,5年期主力合约跌0.16%,2年期主力合约跌0.06%。银行间主要利率债收益率普遍上行,10年期国债活跃券“22附息国债25”收益率上行2.25bp。央行公布12月金融数据,12月新增社融1.31万亿元,同比少增1.05万亿元,社融存量增速为9.6%,较11月下降0.4个百分点。从分项看,实体信贷与非标同比改善,企业债与政府债成为最大拖累项目,居民长期贷款依旧低迷。虽然12月整体数据偏弱,但企业中长期贷款持续增加表明政策发力见效,而疫情以及理财赎回等拖累因素均为短期干扰因素,市场对于未来社融改善预期较强。当前离春节还有两周时间,央行的净投放仍至关重要,不过1月逆回购到期压力最大的时间段已经过去,预计临近春节央行仍会通过加大逆回购投放的方式熨平资金利率波动,整体资金面无忧。当前依旧处于弱现实与强预期的交织中,短期国债期货难以摆脱震荡走势。

贵金属:

隔夜黄金震荡偏强。全球最大的SPDR黄金ETF持仓较上一交易日减少1.16吨至914.17吨。昨晚鲍威尔讲话称通胀风暴并未结束,从货币政策演绎也不会轻易转向,但市场对美联储加息继续放缓至25个基点存在预期。近期无论是美联储12月会议纪要还是非农就业数据,理论上均对黄金偏利空,但实际上黄金上涨反而更加强劲,并创出周度新高,由此也可以看出,目前黄金做多力量依然较强。当前市场交易的核心因素仍然是2023年度美经济陷入滞胀,将迫使美联储货币政策转向,但市场忽略潜在的利空而更加重视利多,本身也是市场进入过热阶段的表现,短期有望保持偏强走势,本轮黄金反弹幅度已经达到16%,海外关注的牛熊分界线是20%的幅度即1936.8美元/盎司,关注重要关口和节点的表现。

免责声明

本报告的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考,并不构成任何具体产品、业务的推介以及相关品种的操作依据和建议,投资者据此作出的任何投资决策自负盈亏,与本公司和作者无关。

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